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Garlic prices hit another 6-year high after 2017

Prices rose in the six core garlic producing areas of China on May. Prices rose from 1.82 yuan/catty on September 1, 2022 to 3.80-3.90 yuan/catty today, an increase of 109%. The trend runs from a relatively low level in six years – “a flight to the sky”, which records a new high in six years.

What is the reason behind the “unexpected” garlic bulbs? Let’s explore from a set of data from agriculture telemetry data from the main planting areas.

First, garlic planting area will be reduced by 16.59% in 2022-2023, and the volume of garlic is expected to contract. Agricultural products telemetry data for 2022-2023 on planting area in core provinces of China’s garlic planting shows: Shandong Province planting area is 2,843,300 mu, a year-on-year reduction of 18.07%; Henan Province planting area is 2,016,300 mu, a year-on-year reduction of 15.09%; The planted area in Jiangsu Province was 1,194,900 mu, a year-on-year reduction of 13.85%; the planted area in Hebei Province was 283,400 mu, a year-on-year reduction of 22.65%; the national planted area was 6,337,900 mu, a year-on-year reduction of 16.59%. This national garlic remote sensing involves the main provinces of Shandong Province, Henan Province, Jiangsu Province and Hebei Province, the four main provinces with a total of 28 municipal units. It is expected to affect 1-1.2 million mu of garlic.

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Secondly, garlic seedling situation in some production areas showed obvious signs of yield reduction, with early garlic reduced by more than 10%. Before and after Qingming from agricultural field inspection of seedling situation: Qixian County, Kaifeng City, Jinxiang County, Jining City, Mazi Town, Mamiao Town, Linyi City, Lanling County, Luzhu Town current seedling situation as a whole is good, similar to last year’s seedling growth. After the expansion period of garlic , in some areas seedling growth of the stem thickness is less than last year’s situation under the influence of weather and other comprehensive factors. Kaifeng City, Xiangfu District, Xuzhou City, Heze City, Chengwu County, Juno County, seedlings is slightly worse than last year with uneven growth, less robust, dead seedlings and other issues. Laiwu District in Jinan City, the seedling situation is the worst in this sample region research, comfirms a double reduction in a range of about 30%. The impact of heavy rainfall in Zhoukou and other places in Henan Province after the seedling extraction on the future garlic needs further observation.

Thirdly, the yield reduction of garlic shoots in 2023 is obvious, and the yield reduction in different regions is between 20%-40% under the influence of comprehensive factors such as management and weather. It has further increased the expectation of garlic yield reduction. The expectation of “double reduction” on the supply side of garlic pushed up the garlic price “up a lot”.

Fourth, garlic prices are soaring, attracting a large number of lobbyists and soaring market popularity.

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